While the selling pressure on Bitcoin causes the price to fall, Mt.Gox and the German government’s BTC sales are shown as the sources of this selling pressure.

At this point, the giant US investment company VanEck acknowledged the negative impact of the German government’s recent Bitcoin sales and Mt.Gox refunds on the Bitcoin price and shared its predictions in its last note to its customers.

Matthew Sigel, Head of VanEck Digital Assets Research, shared the note they sent to their customers in his post on his X account.

Mt. Stating that $3 billion of the $8 billion Bitcoin was distributed within the scope of Gox refunds, Sigel said that it is still unknown whether the people who bought these BTCs will sell them.

“Payments to creditors were planned to begin from the beginning of July, and it is unknown whether those who qualify will eventually sell these funds.

Given the GBTC precedent, we expect holders to HODL at least 1/4 of the coins, but there is a wide range of estimates.

It’s worth noting that Bitcoin has traded around $10 billion per day on crypto exchanges this year, versus $8 billion in BTC redemptions. This does not include the OTC market. “At this point, the market has the volume to handle these sales.”

Trump May Bring New ATH to Bitcoin!

Matthew Sigel stated that in the face of all these sales, they expect the upcoming US elections to trigger a new ATH for Bitcoin.

Stating that the long-awaited turn in monetary policy seems closer as inflation continues to slow down and the US economy is in a soft landing situation, Sigel said, “Potentially, the election will push BTC to all-time highs as a more friendly US regulatory environment will be created under the Trump administration.” we are waiting.” said.

Sigel also pointed out that Bitcoin adoption is continuing rapidly in some emerging markets, saying that three more countries (Kenya, Ethiopia and Argentina) have announced that they are processing Bitcoin with state-owned energy this year.

Finally, the VanEck manager, who also made a suggestion about what the weight of Bitcoin and Ethereum should be in the portfolios, stated that they think a 6% position size for Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) in most 60/40 index portfolios is reasonable.

“We continue to advocate a dollar cost average strategy to buy Bitcoin up to target weight, viewing 6% for BTC and ETH as a reasonable position size for most 60/40 benchmark portfolios.”

#Bitcoin has been weak in recent days due to the sales by government entities including the US & German Government and the fears of large distributions from the Mt. Gox estate. Here what we wrote to clients:

The Mt Gox trustee currently holds ~$8B of bitcoins. They have recently… pic.twitter.com/CAgmtaVWts

— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) July 8, 2024

*This is not investment advice.