‘Uncomfortable’ Bitcoin Indicator Could Decide BTC’s Next Move, According to Benjamin Cowen

dailyhodl.com 10 July 2024 20:18, UTC

A widely followed crypto analyst says that one classic indicator could dictate Bitcoin’s (BTC) next price move.

In a new video update, crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen tells his 803,000 YouTube subscribers that the crypto king’s relative strength index (RSI) – a momentum oscillator used to analyze whether an asset is overbought or oversold – is giving “uncomfortable” vibes.

Looking at two-week candles, Cowen notes that every single one of Bitcoin’s price tops coincided with the RSI hitting the same downward resistance level – something that has already happened in March.

“We can also look at this on a two-week time frame because I actually think that the RSI is a little bit more useful the longer the time frame that you’re using… When you first look at the two-week RSI there, it’s a bit of an uncomfortable feeling…

You can see that the two-week RSI has tagged this upper trend line – there’s this downward trend line that is tagged near major tops for Bitcoin. We tagged it in 2011 and in 2013, and then again later in 2013. We tagged it [also] here in 2017.

Then we also tagged it in January of 2021, but then we know that Bitcoin went slightly higher even after that, but again there’s no denying that when you look at this, it probably makes you feel somewhat uncomfortable. That’s why I say it’s a good idea to stick to the risk metrics.”

Source: Benjamin Cowen/YouTube

However, looking at the monthly chart, Cowen notes the possibility of BTC “pulling a 2019” where the RSI initially fails to breach the 66 level before successfully reaching the downward resistance level that has previously called tops.

“I wonder, is it going to just go up here by the end of the year and then sort of the left translated peak comes to fruition? Or is it going to pull a 2019 on us, and just kind of fade for a little bit longer than people think it’s going to. Because in 2019 you can see that it had a really nice run but then the monthly RSI faded from June of 2019 into March. So coming up here to the high, it dropped for about nine months, so if it were to do that here, about nine months would actually put it in December of 2024.”