Bitcoin Dormant Activity Hints at a Market Bottom
beincrypto.com 29 August 2024 21:40, UTC The Bitcoin (BTC) market has recently seen a notable shift in the activity of its long-term holders.
On Thursday morning, there was a notable surge in the “age consumed” metric, indicating that investors who have held their coins for an extended period are now becoming active again.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Are on the Move
According to Santiment, Bitcoin’s “age consumed” metric spiked to 34.16 million on Thursday morning, marking the highest single-day level since August 5, when a broader market downturn led to over $1 billion in liquidations. The age consumed metric tracks the movement of dormant coins by calculating the time they’ve been held before being moved, multiplied by the number of coins moved.
Typically, long-term holders do not frequently move their coins, so a spike in this metric can often signal a forthcoming shift in market trends.
Following this jump in age consumed, Bitcoin experienced a 1% increase over the past 24 hours. When a price spike accompanies a surge in age consumed, it can indicate that a local bottom. However, the recent 1% growth isn’t enough to confirm this thesis.
Further analysis of Bitcoin’s spent output age bands reveals widespread distribution of coins by various holder cohorts over the past few days. A report from Cryptoquant analyst XBTManager highlighted significant transfers, including 7,788 coins aged 1 to 3 months and 75,228 coins aged 3 to 6 months on August 27.
The following day, the market saw the transfer of 19,067 coins aged one week to one month, along with smaller amounts of coins aged up to 2 years. Today, traders have moved 23,345 coins aged one week to one month, 1,220 coins aged six to 12 months, and 16,003 coins aged 5 to 7 years.
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“These transfers need to stop; otherwise, they will continue to contribute to the decline. When bitcoins that have remained dormant for a long time are moved, it’s usually in preparation for something, and you may see them used for selling. Transfers that occur at the right time and place tend to have a negative impact on Bitcoin,” he noted.
BTC Price Prediction: A Rally Above $60,000 Is Possible
At press time, Bitcoin is trading below its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $59,640. This moving average, which tracks the coin’s average price over the past 20 days, is a key indicator of market sentiment.
When an asset’s price falls below its 20-day EMA, it typically signals an increase in selling pressure.
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If this selling pressure intensifies, Bitcoin risks losing its gains from the past 24 hours and could drop to $58,790. However, if the coin manages to break above its 20-day EMA, the renewed buying momentum could push its price back above the $60,000 mark.
