Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a rough time recently, failing to reach its expected all-time high since the last halving. The cryptocurrency’s price has dropped by 10% and currently hovers around $57.2K. This marks Bitcoin’s longest delay in achieving a new peak post-halving, as strong interest rates and supply issues weigh on its price performance.

Bitcoin’s Halving Cycle Faces Delay

Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to skyrocket after each halving event, with significant price increases following the reduction of miner rewards. Previous halving cycles have sparked bullish trends, pushing Bitcoin to new all-time highs.

However, this time, things look different, after the fourth halving, Bitcoin’s price has been relatively steady, primarily trading sideways rather than experiencing the explosive growth seen in earlier cycles. This was due to the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and new market players have shifted market dynamics, causing Bitcoin to hit an all-time high before the halving occurred.

Unlike the usual accumulation periods during halving, long-term holders (LTHs) took profits earlier this year, especially when Bitcoin reached $73K in March. Meanwhile, data reveals that many of these investors have slowed down since, creating a different pattern than in previous halving cycles.

Furthermore, significant supply overhangs, including repayments to Mt.Gox creditors and the German government’s sale of seized BTC, added pressure to the market.

Bitcoin Poised for a Bull Run?

Despite the calm, prominent crypto analyst Crypto Rover believes this stability is only temporary. His analysis suggests that Bitcoin is forming a strong resistance level, which is often a sign of an impending breakout.

According to the Rover’s halving chart, the current market conditions indicate that Bitcoin could soon break out of this sideways trend and begin a bull run, potentially reaching between $100K and $120K.

On-Chain Metrics Paint a Mixed Picture

Bitcoin has struggled to stay above $60K, but the situation isn’t all negative. According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s unrealized losses stand at 2.9% of its market capitalization. The combined ratio of Unrealized Profit and Unrealized Loss suggests that profits are 6x larger than losses for most investors.

However, short-term holders (STH), those who’ve held coins for less than 155 days, are experiencing the majority of unrealized losses. While these losses aren’t at extreme levels yet, further declines could trigger significant sell-offs from this group.

Long-Term Outlook: Bearish or Bullish?

As more Bitcoin bought during the all-time high period in March moves into the long-term holders cohort, the market seems to be entering a bear-like phase.

While it’s unclear if Bitcoin has hit its peak for this cycle or will rally again, many investors are debating whether now is the worst time to quit Bitcoin, or if another surge is just around the corner.