Bitcoin’s price has been recovering over the past few weeks, climbing from $52,500 and reclaiming key levels at $57K and $60K. However, the market faces strong resistance at the $64K level, with the 200-day moving average acting as a barrier. A bullish breakout above this could lead to a new all-time high, supported by RSI values above 50%. While the short-term trend is upward, there’s potential for a pullback if $64K rejects the price. On-chain data shows that miners have reduced their selling pressure, signaling the potential for a rally as supply tightens.

In a series of X posts, VirtualBacon has raised eyebrows with his latest analysis of Bitcoin’s sudden surge following a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed. After months of stagnation, Bitcoin pushed past $64K, but he warns it might be too early to celebrate. While the market reaction was swift, the real test lies ahead.

Why $65K is the Key to the Bull Run

Despite Bitcoin’s rise, analysts emphasize that it remains stuck in a choppy range, with $64,900 acting as a critical resistance level. A break above $65K would signal a confirmed uptrend, but until then, caution is necessary. He also points out that Jerome Powell hinted at another 50 bps cut by year-end, signaling potential volatility ahead.

He delves into broader macroeconomic factors, specifically the looming recession risk. Historically, major rate cuts have been precursors to recessions, with eight out of the last 13 cycles leading to economic downturns within a year. However, the exact timing is uncertain. The key metric to watch? Unemployment. If it stays below 4.4%, a recession could be delayed until 2026.

A Strategic Approach

For now, he suggests a cautious trading strategy. He advises holding spot positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana while dollar-cost averaging into promising sectors like AI, memecoins, and Layer 1s. He avoids leverage due to the volatile market conditions, reminding traders to stay patient and follow macro trends.

The analyst’s message is clear: don’t get swept away by FOMO. Until Bitcoin breaks above $65K, it’s best to remain cautious and stick to long-term strategies. The unemployment rate will be a crucial indicator, with liquidity flowing into the market likely to drive Bitcoin upward if recession fears hold off.

In the meanwhile, investors are eyeing further rate cuts by the Fed, potentially by year’s end, with the next decision expected on Nov. 7. Lower rates are likely to stimulate economic activity, boosting corporate earnings and driving growth. Meanwhile, upcoming economic data, including the PCE index and GDP, may add volatility to markets this week. Stay tuned for all the recent market updates.