Telegram CEO Pavel Durov was arrested in France over the weekend.

Bettors on Polymarket are putting money on him remaining in custody after the 96-hour deadline prescribed by courts, as there’s a growing belief he may be formally charged.

Telegram CEO Pavel Durov could be free to go as soon as Wednesday local time, French prosecutors said. However, Polymarket isn’t confident he’ll be released in August, with bettors putting money on a release before the end of September.

Durov has not yet been formally charged, prosecutors said. Instead, he is being held as part of an investigation that stems as a result of crimes allegedly planned or broadcasted on Telegram, including money laundering, drug trafficking, child pornography, and non-cooperation with law enforcement.

Bettors say there’s a 72% chance he’ll be out before October, with shares of the yes side trading at 72 cents. Each share pays out $1 in USDC, a stablecoin, if the prediction comes true, and $0 if it does not.

As Durov was arrested on Saturday, August 24, 2024, at 8:00 PM local time when his plane landed at Le Bourget airport, a general aviation airport north of Paris, he could be held until Wednesday, August 28, 2024, at 8:00 PM, but bettors have their money on an extended stay.

The press release indicates that if investigators uncover sufficient evidence during questioning, Durov’s detention could be extended, or he could be formally charged and moved to pre-trial detention. This possibility likely fuels market skepticism about his release by the initial deadline.

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